Now that the duck boats are put away, and the confetti has settled, the magical ride known as the 2013 Red Sox season has officially come to a close. Though the memories of this year will not subside throughout New England any time soon, the offseason is right around the corner, and it's never too early to start taking a look at what we may expect next year.
Ben Cherington has managed to build a core that will be unaffected for the most part going into next year, but there are a few key decisions looming. There will be four starting spots in the lineup where the incumbent is a pending free agent. My prediction is that at least half of them will not be returning to field on opening day at Fenway next season. Read on below for a full breakdown of each position, and my predictions on who fills the voids on the roster.
STARTING ROTATION
As displayed during their run to an 8th World Series title, this is a big strength of the current team. Luckily for them, they face no departures at this position, and should expect to have a surplus of proven starting pitchers.
Jon Lester- Perhaps the easiest decision to be made has already been executed. Lester had an option on his contract for the 2014 season, which the Red Sox have already exercised. Lester will return to the team for $13 million next year, and based on the way the big lefty finished the postseason, this has to be viewed as a somewhat discounted price. After facing some questions last year and early this season regarding his performance, Lester seems to have returned to the form of a true ace.
John Lackey- What a difference a year can make. Or in this case, 4 years. Signed to a five year contract prior to the 2010 season, Lackey had done nothing but irritate fans in Boston for the first 3 years of the deal. Now finally healthy, Lackey has shown what it was that made him a prized free agent all those years ago. After winning the title clinching game 6 at Fenway, Lackey appears set to be a fixture in the rotation next season.
Clay Buchholz- Buchholz endured a Jekyll & Hyde type season, mainly due to health issues. For the 1st half of the season, it seemed that Buchholz would finally realize his potential for a full year. Alas, he got hurt prior to the all star break, and never seemed to recover. During the playoffs it was obvious he was not 100%. Though his roster spot is secure next season, this is an interesting situation to monitor seeing that the farm system is stocked with starters, a few of whom are borderline major league ready.
Jake Peavy- Acquired at the trade deadline last season, Peavy not only provided the extra arm needed for a playoff push, but will ensure Boston sustains it's current status quo of accomplished starting pitchers. Peavy had a couple rough starts during October, but you can count on him providing solid numbers over the course of a full season with Boston.
Felix Doubront- Through an extended stretch of the regular season, Doubront may have been the most reliable pitcher in the rotation. Overall, his numbers were not outstanding, but based on his age and upside, it seems likely that he returns to the rotation again this year. How long he lasts in that position is based solely on his performance.
ODD MAN OUT
Ryan Dempster- Dempster also served in the rotation for most of the 2013 regular season, but was exiled to the bullpen come October. Dempster will be going into the 2nd year of a contract which will pay him just over $13 million, and entering his age 37 season. It is unlikely that the Red Sox would be able to find a trade partner for Dempster, so they may forced to hold on to Dempster and find a spot for him.
BULLPEN
The Sox bullpen has become established as one of the best in the league, which wouldn't have been surprising if you'd said that before the season started. What is surprising is who the primary pieces are. Koji Uehara had an historic season after taking over as closer, and he will be back in the same role next year on a bargain of a contract. Junichi Tazawa has become a magnificent set up man, showing his talents against Miguel Cabrera and other big sluggers in clutch spots during the postseason. Prior to the season it was expected that Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey would fill those respective roles. Hanrahan will look for a new team this winter, and Bailey is a good candidate to be non-tendered. Craig Breslow will be back to serve a valuable job in the bullpen, as will Brandon Workman who really has impressed during his tenure in the big leagues thus far. Drake Britton is under team control and will likely be given a chance to win a job in the pen. Rounding out the bullpen possibilities are Andrew Miller, Bryan Villareal, and Franklin Morales. I suspect Miller comes back on a reasonable one year tender offer. Morales is the most interesting as he may have the most value on the trade market, and if Miller comes back there won't be room for another lefty.
CATCHER
David Ross will return for a second straight year in a role very similar to this year. The question is who does he split time with? Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a free agent and will surely draw a lot of interest on the market. Salty has developed into one of the better hitting catchers around. Ryan Lavarnway doesn't appear ready to be a starting catcher, and there isn't enough of an upgrade offensively elsewhere to allow Salty to walk.
FIRST BASE
Mike Napoli is again a free agent, and there is no way he doesn't get a multi year deal this time around. He wants to stay with the Red Sox, and the team would love to keep him. Nap was surprisingly sound defensively and proved to be healthy. This is a position where Boston has seeked stability for many years, and seem to have finally found their man.
SECOND BASE
Dustin Pedroia is the cornerstone of this team and won't be going anywhere for a long while. Though the power numbers decreased this year, Pedroia was still hitting and reaching base, on top of playing elite defense.
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts will be given the reigns at shortstop, and I expect him to never hand them back. Stephen Drew will leave as a free agent, allowing the Bogaerts era to commence.
THIRD BASE
Will Middkebrooks will again be given the chance to prove he is the 3rd baseman of the future. 2013 was a wildly inconsistent one for the young 3rd baseman, but he has shown enough potential to take the hot corner on opening day.
OUTFIELD
Shane Victorino will be back to man right field, coming off a successful bounce back campaign that saw him become one of the more popular figures on the team. In large part to his gold glove defense, Victorino posted a 6.1 WAR this season, good enough for 9th in the whole American League.
Daniel Nava will return to left field following up what was a career year. Nava may be the most underrated player in the AL: His .303 batting average placed him 8th in the league, his .385 OBP was 5th. Despite the very good season, Nava somehow found his way on the bench behind Jonny Gomes for most of the playoffs. Gomes returns next season, and you can expect much of the same usage. Gomes will platoon with Nava, taking most of the starts vs left handed pitching.
Center field will likely yield a change, as Jacoby Ellsbury appears destined for a large contract from a different team. Chances are he winds up out west somewhere. The Red Sox aren't willing to overpay, as they have confidence Jackie Bradley is ready to take over the role. Bradley would be the clear top prospect in the system if not for someone named Bogaerts. He has also rocked minor league pitching, and showed signs he's ready for the majors.
DH
This is a no brainer. Just when people question whether David Ortiz has any great seasons left to give, he posts phenomenal numbers all season, culminating in a World Series MVP trophy. It doesn't look like Big Papi is slowing down just yet.
BENCH
Ross and Gomes were previously mentioned. Mike Carp had a quietly fantastic year last year, and should provide a spark off the pine again this year. Carp is a lefty with pop that can play multiple positions, bringing great value to the club. One need that the Sox will face in filling their roster, is a need for a utility infielder. The ideal candidate will have to be able to step in should Middlebrooks struggle, or Bogaerts stumbles in the spotlight. Being a left handed bat would also be preferable (Kelly Johnson?).
Overall, the team looks well positioned to remain a contender next year. Though it seems they can fill any holes with internal and/or affordable options, the big move should never be ruled out when we are talking about the Boston Red Sox.
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