Who Is Masahiro Tanaka?

If you've been paying attention to the baseball offseason, you've probably heard the name Masahiro Tanaka come up. What you may not know is who exactly that is? Japanese Emperor? Latest character in a popular anime cartoon? No, the correct answer is he's the most recent hyped Japanese pitcher. Before we go further, let's get a few things out of the way: No, he does not throw a 'gyroball', no he will not throw 200 pitches in a game, and no he cannot morph into a dragon and start spitting fire at batters. So, what's all the fuss about?

Tanaka is a 25 year old starting pitcher for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Nippon Professional Baseball league. Tanaka is eligible for international free agency via the posting system that brought Daisuke Matsuzaka and most recently Yu Darvish to America to play ball. The posting system requires teams to submit a bid for the right to negotiate with the player, and then they must come to terms within an alotted time frame. You may remember the Red Sox winning bid for Matsuzaka in 2006 was $51.11 million, and the club would then shell out another $52 million for a six year contract. Darvish was posted in 2011 and the winning bid presented by the Rangers amounted to $51.7 million, and they proceeded to ink Darvish to a $60 million 6 year contract. Current estimates are that the winning bid for Tanaka could reach upwards of $70-$75 million, and he  expects to command a deal in excess of the $60 million Darvish received. 

So who is Tanaka more likely to take after, Matsuzaka or Darvish? Matsuzaka was a top draft pick into the NPB out of high school, and had a successful career in the league. His career numbers are a 108-60 record, 2.95 ERA, with 1,355 strikeouts. What drove Matsuzaka fever through the roof in 2006 was his dominating MVP performance in the World Baseball Classic. Matsuzaka had a good year in 2008 for Boston but participated again in the WBC the following year and never seemed the same. Darvish was received with similar fanfare, being hailed as the best in Japan at the time. His NPB career stats include a 93-38 record, 1.99 ERA, and 1,259 strikeouts. He was clearly a dominating pitcher there, and so far has displayed much of the same talent here. 

The signings by teams of these Japanese stars are dangerous to say the least. There has been several cautionary tales: see Hideki Irabu (RIP) and Kei Igawa. Irabu was famously referred to as a "fat toad" by George Steinbrenner on his way to a career 34-35 record and 5.15 ERA. Igawa represented a huge waste of money by the Yankees as they paid over $46 million to retain his services, which ultimately was a career 6.66 ERA. So while pursuing Tanaka is a gamble, here are the facts we do know:

 -Tanaka was rookie of the year in 2007 and hasn't slowed down since

-Tanaka's career stats: 99-35 2.30 ERA 1,238 strikeouts. This puts him somewhere between Darvish and Matsuzaka

- he finished 2013 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA

- In 5 playoff starts he threw 4 complete games, including a 160 pitch effort in game 6 of the championship series, then came back to get the save in game 7.

This last feat is what should cause teams to think twice prior to making such a big commitment to the Japanese star. There is a lot of fear he could breakdown much in the mold of Matsuzaka before him. Nonetheless there will be a handful of teams lining up to submit a bid when the time comes. Expect the usual big players to get involved: Dodgers, Yankees. Also the Rangers and Angels will likely make some kind of play.  

Who Will Win the 2013 MLB Awards?

The finalists for the most prestigious awards in Major League Baseball were recently unveiled. Let's take a look at who is most likely to win each award...


American League Manager of the Year

The finalists include John Farrell, who took the Boston Red Sox from worst to first, Terry Francona who revived a flailing Cleveland franchise, and Bob Melvin who lead the Athletics to a second straight division title. The winning manager is often one who exceeded expectations for his club. Based on this criteria, I don't foresee Melvin taking home the hardware. The competition is between two friends who both won the World Series in their first year managing the Red Sox. The turnaround that Farrell conducted in Boston is even more impressive, which will lead to him winning the award and capping a great first season in Boston.

National League Manager of the Year

Finalists: Clint Hurdle, Pirates; Don Mattingly, Dodgers; Fredi Gonzalez, Braves. Again, we can almost exclude Gonzalez from the picture, as his Braves squad was one that was expected to contend entering the season. Though perhaps you could say the same for the other two managers, each faced their own quarrels in reaching the playoffs. The Pirates had endured two decades of losing seasons, and Clint Hurdle was the man to finally put an end to it. Of course, he had some help with a good squad lead by a possible MVP winner. Regardless, the job that Hurdle did won't be forgotten in Pittsburgh any time soon. Mattingly was facing possible exile halfway through the year, but managed to rile up his club to go on a massive surge, turning around the season and finishing in 1st place. Hurdle is the leading candidate and should win this award.

American League Rookie of the Year

Finalists: Wil Myers, Rays; Jose Iglesias, Tigers; Chris Archer, Rays. It's no surprise to see two Tampa Bay players on this list. It seems that they have a never ending supply of young and upcoming talent through their minor leagues. Though Archer had a quietly great season, posting an ERA of 3.22, Myers was the superb Tampa Bay rookie this year. Myers rocked the American League for a little more than half a season, but showed the ability to hit the ball and get on base. Iglesias had an uncharacteristically good first half hitting the ball, but finally dropped back to Earth in the 2nd half of the season. Overall, his batting numbers look pretty good, but really it is his defense that makes him so special. While we will see some highlight reel plays from Iglesias for years to come, we will never see AL Rookie of the Year on his resume. Wil Myers wins this award.

National League Rookie of the Year

Finalists: Jose Fernandez, Marlins; Yasiel Puig, Dodgers; Shelby Miller, Cardinals. It was an impressive crop of youngsters in the senior circuit in 2013. In any other year, they could all be possible winners. Fernandez and Puig definitely set themselves apart from Miller though. Miller was a very solid pitcher, but Fernandez and Puig were amazingly good, especially for first timers. Fernandez posted a 2.19 ERA, and also had an impressive 9.75 K/9 IP. Either of the two could realistically place 1st in the voting. My prediction is that Fernandez takes the top honor.

American League Cy Young

Finalists: Max Scherzer, Tigers; Yu Darvish, Rangers; Hikashi Iwakuma, Mariners. This is one race that won't be very contested. Scherzer has looked like a Cy young winner virtually all season long. Darvish was overpowering for most of the year, but fought bouts of inconsistency, and ultimately didn't post Cy young caliber numbers across the board. Iwakuma is name one wouldn't expect on this list. The Mariners hurler is a control pitched who had a career year, and is a long shot to win. Scherzer will win this crown. 

National League Cy Young

Finalists: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Adam Wainwright, Cardinals; Jose Fernandez, Marlins. Both leagues had one pitcher this season that just truely dominated. Kershaw was that guy in the National League. Anytime someone puts up a sub-2.00 ERA, it's amazing. Kershaw was nothing less than that in 2013, and has solidified himself as the best pitcher in the league. Wainwright proved to be the consistent thrower he is, logging an impressive 241.2 innings and helping lead the Cardinals to their 2nd World Series in 3 years. Fernandez was covered earlier in the rookie section. For him to be a finalist in this category speaks to just how special of a rookie campaign he had. The verdict here: Kershaw wins his 2nd Cy young award. 

American League MVP

Finalists: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Chris Davis, Orioles; Mike Trout, Angels. Last year brought us the Cabrera vs Trout debate, in which proponents of new school stats felt like Trout was more worthy of MVP despite Cabrera winning the triple crown. This year Trout was even better, with a WAR that measured 10.4, and he increased his OBP over 30 points to an impressive .432. Thrown into the mix this year is Davis who had one of the better power displays in years. Davis paced the AL with 53 HR's and 138 RBI. Cabrera takes the cake however as he not only had an equally impressive season statistically, he is the only player of the 3 to lead his team to the playoffs. 

National League MVP

Finalists: Yadier Molina, Cardinals; Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks; Andrew Mccutchen, Pirates. This race could be a true test of the old thought that a player must be on a playoff team in order to be MVP. Each of these guys had good seasons. The difference is Mccutchen is the best player on a Pirate team that had a historic year, and Molina is the leader on a very good Cardinals ball club. Goldschmidt is stuck on the sub par Diamondbacks. Listen to the following stats and tell me they aren't MVP numbers:

.551 slugging (1st in NL), .401 OBP (4th), .951 OPS (1st), 103 runs (3rd), 332 total bases (1st), 36 HR (1st), 125 RBI (1st). The fact that Goldschmidt has also already been awarded the silver slugger and gold glove further shows his all around ability. I'd like to see him add an MVP trophy to his expanding collection.