Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts

Nov 13, 2013

NFC Playoff Picture

Taking a glance at the NFC playoff picture you notice one thing...it is UGLY. Injuries have ravaged many teams within the conference leaving them fighting for playoff spots when just a few weeks ago they were all but guaranteed January football. 

When taking a look you can only safely eliminate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings from playoff contention. This leaves 13 teams battling for 6 spots.  Let's take a closer look at how this will potentially shake out over the coming weeks.

NFC East

It is hard to imagine a scenario in today's NFL where a team that starts 0-6 can not only make the playoffs but have a legitimate chance of winning the division.  That is exactly the scenario the New York Giants find themselves in.  Currently riding a three game win streak, the Giants will have a chance to bolster their playoff hopes this weekend as they host the injury ridden Green Bay Packers.

When you think of inconsistency in the NFL over the past decade one team springs to mind...the Dallas Cowboys.  This season seems to be no different as they find themselves sitting at 5-5.  Tony Romo has shown glimpses of being the franchise quarterback his contract suggests he is including a five touchdown performance against the Denver Broncos earlier in the year.  This past weekend, former Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan got the best of Romo as he was held to a measly 128 yards passing in a loss to the New Orleans Saints.  Which Cowboys team will we see in December? That is an impossible question to answer, but they will have a chance to once again prove their doubters wrong.  Each division opponent shows up one more time on the Cowboys schedule. 

One of the major questions entering the NFL season was how the knee of Robert Griffin III would hold up after off-season surgery.  Through nine games it still seems as though RGIII is still not at 100% and his numbers reflect that.  Griffin was explosive during his rookie campaign, running for 815 yards and seven touchdowns while only throwing five interceptions as the Washington Redskins reached the playoffs. In 2013 it has been a different story as he has already eclipsed his interception mark of last year throwing nine while also not finding the end zone once on the ground thus far.  The Redskins currently sit at 3-6 and with the toughest remaining schedule in the division, they should begin to look towards next year where RGIII will hopefully be back to his normal self.

After losing the starting quarterback position to Michael Vick in the preseason, who would have thought Nick Foles would be leading the Philadelphia Eagles towards the postseason.  In a division with Romo, Griffin III and Eli Manning, Foles has stood tallest, throwing 16 touchdowns and no interceptions under first year coach Chip Kelly.  With weapons on the outside like DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper and with LeSean McCoy in the backfield there is no reason why Foles can't continue his hot play down the stretch and have the Eagles competing for the division title. 

So what do we make of the NFC East?  Four teams seperated by only two games, most likely competing for one playoff spot.  The Eagles are my favorite as they are hitting their stride at the right time, while the Cowboys can't seem to put any sort of momentum together.  The Giants are playing good football and have once again rallied around their coach Tom Coughlin.  A team that has started the season 0-6 has never made the playoffs and I don't expect the Giants to have enough time to dig out of the early hole they made themselves.  It will be a race that will come down to the final week of the season with a big play or mistake being the difference between who gets in and who is left on the outside looking in.

NFC North

Much like the NFC East, nothing has been decided in the NFC North.  The North is a prime example of how in the NFL, one play can flip an entire division on it's head.  Just two weeks ago, it seemed the Green Bay Packers were headed for another division title.  All of that changed during a Monday night game against the Chicago Bears when All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rodgers was sacked, fracturing his collarbone.  Rodgers will be out at least another few weeks, leaving the quarterbacking duties to journeyman Scott Tolzien and newly signed Matt Flynn.  Tolzien looks more like a high school chemistry teacher than the prototypical NFL quarterback, but he did show flashes of potential when he was called upon last week after an injury to Seneca Wallace.

The Packers have been disseminated by injuries on both sides of the ball this season.  Rodgers, along with impact players Clay Matthews, Randall Cobb, JerMichael Finley, Bryan Bulaga and Nick Perry have all been sidelined for significant time.  Can the Packers hold up over the next couple of weeks to give themselves a shot when Rodgers returns? They will need to at least split their next two games against the New York Giants this Sunday and division rival Minnesota Vikings the following week.  

Another team that has been bitten by the injury bug this season have been the Chicago Bears.  Quarterback Jay Cutler is once again sidelined this week and will be replaced by Josh McCown who has looked good this season when called upon.  On the defensive side of the ball is where the Bears have been impacted most by injuries with Pro-Bowlers Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs and Henry Melton all currently out.  The Bears got a massive win over the Packers two weeks ago after Rodgers was forced to leave.  They host the Packers again Week 17 in what could be a deciding game for the two teams.

The team that has taken advantage of the injury problems to the Bears and Packers are the Detroit Lions who currently sit at the top of the division.  They control their own destiny at this point and with winnable games at Pittsburgh and home to Tampa Bay and the aforementioned Packers on Thanksgiving, the Lions could find themselves sitting pretty at 9-3 at the end of November.

While the division is far from decided at this point, you have to expect the injury problems to eventually take there toll on the Bears and Packers.  I expect the Lions to take advantage and claim their first outright division championship since 1993, leaving the Bears and Packers battling for a Wild Card spot. 

NFC South

Sean Payton has proved this season that a great head coach in the NFL may be a more valuable commodity than we thought.  Returning to the sidelines after a year-long suspension, Payton along with All-Pro quarterback Drew Brews have guided the New Orleans Saints to a 7-2 start.  With the scandal that surrounded the 2012 season behind them, the Saints appear to have regained the form that led them to three straight playoff appearances prior to last season.

With all of the attention focused on the rejuvenated Saints, the Carolina Panthers have quietly crept into the playoff picture.  Trailing the Saint by just one game, the Panthers have won five straight including a win over the San Francisco 49ers this past weekend.  With the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggling at the back end of the division this season, it is a two horse race for the division title.  The teams meet twice in the month of December so it will all be decided on the field between two of the leagues hottest teams.  Whoever doesn't come out on top will be one of the favorites to claim a Wild Card spot.

NFC West

In the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks have been in cruise control from the start and look to be a good bet to have home field advantage for the NFC playoffs.  The Seahawks have been unbeatable at home recently, sporting a 12-0 record at CenturyLink Field since the beginning of the 2012 season.

The San Francisco 49ers are still in the drivers seat for a Wild Card berth despite their loss to the Panthers on Sunday.  Colin Kaepernick has been a far cry from the quarterback that ran his team all the way to the Super Bowl last year.  With a defense that forces turnovers and a balanced running attack led by Frank Gore, the 49ers have had to rely less on the playmaking of Kaepernick.  The 49ers, barring a collapse should find there way into the playoffs.

The Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams have both played better of late, which makes the division an entertaining one to follow down the stretch.  The Cardinals have played the Seahawks and 49ers tough, while the Rams nearly knocked off the Seahawks as well before blowing out the AFC South leading Colts last week.  Neither of these teams will likely make the playoffs this season, but the future is bright.  With plenty of young talent on both squads it will make the NFC West one of the better divisions in football over the coming years.

Like the AFC, parity is reigning supreme in the NFC as there is much that is left to be decided.  I believe the Eagles will emerge from the the mess that is the NFC East and join the Lions, Saints and Seahawks as division champions.  The 49ers will return to the playoffs as one of the Wild Card teams, while the Packers will sneak in as long as they can hold on until Aaron Rodgers is able to return.  If Rodgers doesn't return at or near 100%, look for the Panthers to round out the NFC playoff field.

Nov 11, 2013

AFC Playoff Picture

Earning a spot in the NFL playoffs is no easy feat. With only a 16 game season to prove yourself worthy and many teams only a fluke injury away from having their entire season derailed, it is easy to see why earning one of six playoff spots each conference hands out is so coveted. As the NFL enters the critical part of the season, a handful of teams have started to distance themselves while it appears the race for the remaining spots will come down to the wire.

AFC East

In the AFC East, the New England Patriots  battled through the first half of the season while dealing with injuries to Rob Gronkowski and off season acquisition Danny Amendola.  Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson were serviceable replacements, but judging by their recent 55 point explosion against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tom Brady is glad to have his full complement of offensive weapons available to him.  They come out of the bye week with a two game cushion over the New York Jets.  It will be interesting to see if the injuries on the defensive side of the ball to Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Tommy Kelly begin to take there toll. 

The Patriots will be challenged coming out of the bye week with games at the red hot Carolina Panthers and at home to the Denver Broncos in a possible AFC playoff preview.  The schedule gets friendlier after that two game stretch as they finish out with the Texans, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Bills, all of whom are teams that have had their share of issues this season.  With no team rising to challenge the Patriots in a year where they have been far from their best, it is a safe bet that they will claim their 9th division title in the last 10 years.

AFC North

In the AFC North the picture has become cloudier over the past few weeks.  The Cincinnati Bengals could have put the division on ice, but with back to back losses to the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens they have brought everyone back into the race.  The Bengals still control their own destiny, but are starting to show the inconsistent play particularly at the quarterback position with Andy Dalton that has earned them a first round exit from the playoffs each of the past two years. 

The Cleveland Browns were a feel good story for a few weeks following the trade of Trent Richardson as they rallied to win two straight. They have now lost three of  their last four and have a must win game at Cincinnati next week to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive. 

The Ravens had their biggest win of the season this past weekend against the Bengals.  They nearly blew it after giving up a Hail Mary on the last play of regulation.  A Justin Tucker field goal in overtime saved them for the time being.  A team like the Ravens will be happy just to get into the playoffs where Joe Flacco has proven he can go on the road and win.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still alive believe it or not after an 0-4 start.  With their pedigree it would be foolish to dismiss them and with four division games remaining including two against the Browns they are by no means out of the picture.  I would not be shocked to see entering Week 17 the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers vying for the division title and one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC.

AFC South

Just when it seemed like the Indianapolis Colts were hitting their stride, they got flattened by the Rams on Sunday.  So is the NFL.  The Colts are still in the drivers seat to win one of the weaker divisions in the NFL and after beating the Broncos they were labeled as Super Bowl contenders.  In order for that to come to fruition, they are going to need to get something out of Trent Richardson and the rest of their running game.

The Tennessee Titans looked early on to at least be in contention for a Wild Card berth.  After a hot start, an injury to quarterback Jake Locker who appeared poised for a breakout season really derailed their changes.  Locker is now out for the year and a loss to the previously winless Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday seems to be final nail in the coffin.  Even with the Raiders, Jaguars and Texans on the schedule it would be tough to see the Titans playing consistent enough with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center to make a run. 

AFC West

When it comes to the AFC West, one thing is guaranteed as the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will both be playing postseason football.  What is left to decide is which team will be resting at home and which will be playing on Wild Card Weekend.

The teams will decide it on the field as they meet twice in the next three weeks.  Whether or not the Chiefs have the firepower to keep up with Broncos is the  key to this matchup.  Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense have put up 30+ points in four straight games.  While Alex Smith has shown he can manage a game without turning the ball over and Jamaal Charles has proven he can finish out a game on the ground, I am not sure that will be enough to match Manning and all of his weapons. 

On the defensive side of the ball the Chiefs have been shutting down teams all year.  They have also made the most of some good fortune.  They have won games this year against Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell and Jeff Tuel and while the 8-0 record is impressive, I expect them to come down to earth against the Broncos. 

While there is a lot to be decided, I expect the Patriots, Bengals, Colts and Broncos to be your division winners.  The Chiefs are virtually a shoe in for one of the Wild Card spots and I believe the Ravens edge out the Jets and Steelers for final spot in the AFC playoffs

Later in the week I will give you my take on the NFC playoff picture as we enter Week 11.